The 2025 Gameplan.
Macro, Themes, Predictions.
GM. It is hard to predict the future, but as traders and investors we should have a plan. This plan, like all plans, change as the base scenario changes - the market is an ever-evolving creature. The memo serves as just a basis of how I think 2025 will play out from where we are today. It serves as an insight into how I think about 2025, and should not be construed as financial advice.
Let me start by reviewing my 2024 gameplan. If you’re not interested, just skip ahead!
The 2024 Gameplan Review
Oh god. I got a pretty meaty part of my 2024 gameplan wrong ; let’s look at it prediction by prediction:
BTC Halving is a non-event
I remember so many people debating this - was halving sell the news, despite it being buy the news historically? At the end of the day, it was just a non-event that heralded a bull market.
Rate cuts are bearish
This was obviously wrong, but in my defence, I shifted my stance on this publicly leading up to the cut, because the initial thesis was “Inflation was sticky and a rate cut would happen after economic data has already weakened significantly, making them a response rather than a preventative measure.”
The Fed proved it wrong, and the right stance to take mostly for the entirety of 2024 was to take the Fed at face value.
Scenario Planning
The crux of my 2024 Gameplan was, I quote: “Derisking my portfolio by a certain percentage before rate cuts to buy back lower, while leaving the rest of my positions untouched.”
I don’t know what I was talking about, because I did not do any of that. LMAO.
In the end, 2024 was a different beast in its own - with a post-ETF initial sell-off, into a Q1 rally, summer lull, and a non-event rate cuts that stimulated stocks but had the crypto-world in absolute shambles as we continued muddling about the 50s-60s, into the eventual election that was the real banger.
My main weakness here was not talking about how 2024 was a year of banking Bitcoin to the traditional institutions. What was I thinking? That was probably THE main thing of 2024 - the slow but steady onboarding of traditional finance to Bitcoin.
Narratives I mentioned:
ETF Benficiaries: COIN (stock) / BTC / ETH
I also mentioned tokens like STX / TRAC, but those have not been doing well at all. COIN was a great call though. As of writing that article, it was somewhere at $120ish.
Side narratives of BRC-20s and LSTs have not lasted long, but were great to play in Q1’24.
SOL
SOL was $60 at the time of writing! Jeez. Yea this is one of my proudest trade ideas - my very first huge banger that I wrote at $20. The caption is pretty funny: "SOL will be triple digits next cycle" - Ansem, probably. Really hit the nail on the head for that one.
Side Narratives of TIA / Aptos / Layer 2s have not done well for most of 2024.
Regulation & Product-Market Fit
I got the narrative right, but the tokens horribly wrong. The idea was “products that pass the regulation bar for DeFi, but haven’t shown clear PMF”.
WHAT was I thinking? I had MMX (Oh God) and dYdX (lmaooo).
Side Narratives of HYPERLIQUID was mentioned. Yea damn I wish I took my own advice and farmed it way more, huh. I was a pretty early user of Hyperliquid, but its significance was not shown to me until too late.
Decentralized AI
This one’s a doozy. I remember being bullish on it, then omega bearish at Q1 top as I realised what I had envisioned versus what was being built were worlds apart. Products like Render and Akash had very little actual use-case, and it just seemed like massive vaporware. I’m of course a huge fan of the current AI narrative, but yea.
Top picks of TAO / OLAS… well TAO was 300 at the time of writing so I guess it 2x’ed? OLAS… let’s not talk about that.
Side Narratives didn’t do well. (AKASH / RNDR / TAO Subnet coins)
GameFi v2
I like this one. This was a trade I took that actually paid off. There was a small window in Q1 2024 where BEAM heavily repriced upwards, and alot of GameFi stuff sent (e.g Pirate NFTs); Prime was also big
Of course, you had to sell the top, if not now you’d be down alot. I didn’t sell as much as I wanted to, but I think at the end of the day it was a profitable trade.
Top Picks: Overworld / Treeverse / Prime / L3E7 - Overworld keys went from 5e → 15e, Treeverse plots went from .2e → 1e (I think), L3E7 went from like 3e to 14e (this I roundtripped);
Side narrative of BLUR didn’t do too hot.
Other potential narratives
dePIN / RWAs
deSci
Memes (BONK / DOGE / PEPE / HPOS10INU)
RUNE / CACAO
GambleFi
Airdrops (LayerZero / Starknet / ZKSync)]
Nothing super good here, other than memes - they popped off hard in Q1 2024, and Bonk basically 2-3’xed from where I wrote it. dePIN also had their time to shine (Geodenet / Helium); but I didn’t focus too much on it. DeSci popped off a few months back, and with BIO on Binance… but I don’t like it that much tbh.
Cycle top
I ended the article with: “The one thing I haven’t talked about is how I think we this cycle ends - and lately, I’ve been giving more and more thought to the GCR idea that "the last pico-top were funds getting in, the next pico-top is when countries start buying.””
Reading this NOW, with the benefit of hindsight - boy, I think I’m gonna steal that one for my 2025 Gameplan. That is on my list of “top signals for this cycle”, definitely. It makes alot of sense.
The 2025 Gameplan
Now that the 2024 review is out of the way, let’s jump straight into it. As usual, first I’ll talk macro / scenarios, then move on to thematic narratives.
Scenarios
The 2024 - ?? cycle has begun. I’d say it begun in late 2023, but we’re splitting hairs here. The cycle so far was: Jan 10th - BTC ETF launched → a move to ATHs which caused altszn, into choppy Q2/Q3 2024 where we bounced around the 50s and 60s. And on election day, we breached ATHs and went all the way to 100k, which we’ve failed to breach, and have been chopping around the 90s.
It’s important to note that altszn or the “fun times” all started during BTC highs, with the first one being the move towards 69k, in which BTC failed to break appropriately, and the next one being the move towards 100k.
The next alt cycle will likely be when BTC convincingly breaks 100k. I have no crystal ball, and while I would like it to be Q1 2025, the fact of the matter is that we could honestly see a repeat of Q2/3 2024 for the next few months - it is something I have to be prepared for. Thus, here are all the scenarios I’ve drawn out:
Scenario 1: BTC + alts up. 2025 becomes upOnly, and then we enter another alt szn as BTC continues to go up up up, and all coins do well, and we get a repeat of what we just saw, the last 2 months where everything goes up (30-40% chance)
Action: BTFD here, on strong alts
Scenario 2: BTC up, alts less up; This becomes a repeat of 2024, where we see choppi szn for the next few months ; but more bullish than 2024 (because BTC upOnly); so select areas do well (50-60% chance)
Action: BTFD here, on select alts. Avoid areas with high attention, figure out the next “where the puck will skate to”
Scenario 3: BTC up, alts downOnly. This is an alt-top; while BTC continues chadding well (20-30% chance)
Sell all alts. Will have to eat drawdown on this; but given enough time, if alts don’t pump, we might have to sell it all.
Scenario 4: BTC down, alts down. Everything tops (10-20% chance)
I believe in a few things. I believe that the new BTC ATH break will not take as long as it did in 2024, because the macro tailwinds are appropriately positioned. In summer hell, the ETF had just launched, and TradFi was still trying to sell the story of BTC to their clients. Most importantly, however, the world was not convinced of the importance of Bitcoin.
Now that Trump is in power and talks of a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve (SBR) are being thrown around, the rhetoric has changed. I’m not going to speculate on the probability of a SBR being set up - I have 0 experience in the intertwine of politics and finance.
What I care about is the narrative - and it is a fact that this new regime that we’re under brings new attention on the digital asset sector, and that it is much easier to convince people to buy Bitcoin now that you the President of the world’s largest global power is talking about it so much.
This regime change is extremely important to recognise. As such, I believe in a scenario where BTC will just continue to have tailwinds for 2025. For alts - a similar but different story.
Total3 went to 2021 ATHs in Q1‘24, and then cycle highs in Q4’24. It more or less follows the same pattern - and to be honest, my Scenario 1 & Scenario 2 aren’t too different from each other.
The key will be in positioning, and timing. I’m bullish 2025, but I don’t know how long this will take - while I do think the upOnly price action will come sooner than it did in 2024, alts still very much bleed in periods with no catalysts.
The plan is always remain net long as long as the cycle hasn’t topped, whether in Bitcoin or others. I don’t think 2025 will see a repeat of summer ‘24, but I do think we’ll get similar periods like now - just a lull, but prices still hold up decently well.
On-chain is different - on-chain is prone to -70% swings when the tide washes out. As such, the goal is always to sell peak attention on-chain, revert back to large alts (Top 20) and then slowly start deploying again.
I don’t think alts top here simply because I cannot see how BTC continues to go up while alts die. And I cannot see BTC topping here.
Conclusion:
BTC up, and up more than 2024
Alts - play offense, know when to switch to defence, but less defensive than 2024.
Risks
Cycle Top
Cycle top is a self-fulfilling prophecy. While I don’t think we’re anywhere near a cycle top, this has to be constantly re-evaluated on a weekly basis. Cycle top is not necessarily an “event”, but more-so of a spectrum that we slowly approach as time goes on.
SBR Risk
With the start of a new Presidency, everyone will be looking at what he does. I admit that while BTC tailwinds are there, it would be pretty bearish if the President forgets about it entirely. IMO the risk is either - the SBR gets forgotten, or the more likely scenario where the SBR doesn’t happen / something different gets drawn out.
In the latter case of (something different) - it’s an initially bearish, but ultimately bullish event as long as its pro-Bitcoin.
TLDR: Bullish signalling = cycle continues. Bearish signalling = have to revise plan. Cycle may continue, but lower chances.
Supply Risk
In 2024, we had insane macro conditions during the summer that saw ATH after ATH for stocks. Instead, we had none of the upside and all of the downside as the supply overlords of Gox, Germany, Grayscale GBTC, and many more battered us again and again.
Supply risk can never be mitigated. There is always someone out there with tons of Bitcoin - the UK government, Silk Road, FTX distribution, or whatever. It’s just something you have to keep tabs on, but imo if all goes well, these events are nice dip-buying events.
Macro
I believe that smaller # of rate cuts are still rate cuts. While it is *less bullish*, the fact of the matter is that as long as rates keep going down, liquidity improves. Again, bullish signalling = cycle continues. Barring a hike / no cuts, macro should be good for digital assets.
Bearish signalling would be inflation rearing its ugly head again, and a world where the Fed may have to raise rates to lower it.
Themes & Tokens
Now for the fun part everyone has been waiting for. But before I talk about this, I want to really, REALLY emphasise the part I was saying about “play offense, but know when to switch to defence.” Active portfolio management will trump passive portfolio management this cycle.
Gone are the days you can buy and hold something forever. Solana has barely performed par with BTC for the entirety of 2024, despite gunning up 10x in 2023. Top picks like TAO have not benefited from the AI boon that we’ve seen in recent months. And for memes - The dog does not have a hat anymore, Chill guy lost his chill, the pygmy hippo looks like its on it’s last legs, etc.
Nothing on this list will likely be something you can “buy and hold”.
On top of that, I like to think - who is the marginal buyer? There’s basically 3 overarching marginal buyers in this space - Institutions (Trad), Funds (Liquid / Crypto-native), and degens (perp traders, on-chainoors, etc.)
For a narrative to be good, it has to be bought by at least one of these parties. With that being said, let’s dive right in:
1. AI
Yes, this is still here. But as the tweet above shows - we’ve gone through a few waves already. If you read my thesis on AI tokens (link here), I believe the next wave is coming soon.
Macro: Hype -> Fundamental -> Utility;
Micro: Reply guy -> Fundamental-ish -> Applications / Avatars
Buying and holding will not do well. Goat, the one that spawned it all, is down 60% from the highs and will likely continue to underperform.
Top Picks: Application Tech / Swarms / Games / Consumer focused AI
Stuff like ALCH (game dev), Griffain (Agent to help control your wallet), Digimon, Ai16z (king of all AI), are top picks in my opinion. Probably a ton I’m missing out on, but you get the point.
2. DeFi
This one needs no elaboration as well. DeFi will continue to be a great narrative, however, it is incredibly hard to invest in as there are really few tokens that will benefit from it. And even if they do, they may not pump (see the LST space).
It is, frankly, not my top choice in terms of risk-reward as well. But it’s a narrative that I think will continue growing into 2025.
Top Picks: AAVE / ENA / Morpho / Euler / USUAL
Side Picks: Stablecoins / Payment related tokens
3. The L1 Trade
I’m going to get so much hate for this, but I believe the L1 trade comes back in size. Hype is a no brainer, but Sui has been massively hated at $1, then at $2, and now at $4. The L1 trade in itself is something I believe the market has been missing though - it stands out as one of the areas that no one is looking at, yet massive opportunity lies (as seen in how Hype has 10x’ed).
Top Picks: SUI / Hype
Side Picks: Abstract
I don’t know how much I like Monad and Berachain. I’m pretty excited for Abstract, though - I think it might be a banger.
4. NFT Tokens & Gaming Coins (Round 2)
I like this one a lot too. I’ve been buying some gaming projects recently, and I think that the NFT token space is something to watch. Pengu has slowly creeped back up, and Azuki has $ANIME, Doodles has.. whatever it is. I don’t think NFTs come back, but I think their tokens do.
Gaming coins are also interesting because Off-The-Grid has shown us that it is possible to make a fun game. With how it’s so hated, I believe that it’d be good to dig deep into the weeds to find genuinely fun games who have tokens coming soon.
Top Picks: Pengu / Anime (Azuki) / Spellborne / Treeverse
Side Picks: Prime / Off the grid (if token comes out) / Overworld
5. Other Narratives
These are on my list, I don’t LOVE them, but they’re interesting
Data tokens - Kaito / Arkm
Memes - really only like PEPE. Everything else… looks cooked
DePIN - PEAQ / HNT
Ordinals
Dino Alts - XRP, etc.
Old DeFi - CRV / CVX
2025 Predictions
This one’s for fun, really. Just stuff I’m thinking about that sounds kinda incredulous, but not really.
DePIN gets implemented by a serious company in a serious manner, somehow. Maybe an acquisition.
Binance loses market share as the top exchange. Not to Hyperliquid, but either Bybit / OKX
Metaverse coins get new life as VR hits new strides
ICOs are great again
ETH On-Chain szn never happens
Sui hits double digits ($10 min)
ETH yield gets approved in ETF, thus spawning more yield products for staking other tokens, and yield aggregators like what we had in 2021
A major artist uses NFTs & tokens in a way to keep tabs on his / her fandom and reward them
Bitcoin hits 200k
More L1s see their CEOs / founders leave after seeing Aptos
Base loses the on-chain race as another L1 takes over. Solana retains.
Concluding Thoughts
Congratulations if you’ve made it this far! This about sums up how I will be positioned going into 2025. I expect that a lot of what I’ve said here will probably change greatly, as with my 2024 Gameplan.
The best advice and takeaway here is really: Be flexible, be like water. Enjoy the ride. The market will continue to change, but that’s just part of the game. As the saying goes:
No man ever steps in the same trade twice. For it’s not the same trade and he’s not the same man”
Good luck, Godspeed, and see you on the other side, ladies and gentleman. If you make life changing profits on the way, remember - change your life.
Yours Truly,
0xKyle
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good read, thanks. Substack has all the great stuff, glad i am taking it seriously now.
I think it is absolutely wrong to neglect meme coins. I believe in the Memecoin Supercycle.