Thank you for reviewing your 2024 gameplan so fairly. And then being brave enough to have another punt for 2025!
Maybe the takes you got 'wrong' in 2024 were just on the wrong time horizon, and will prove to be correct in the long term.
My own amateur prediction is that your predictions based on trends of the last couple of months mostly play out differently (eg NFT projects' fungible tokens, HYPE a top L1, AI agents/swarms/consumer #1 pick for 2025, rate cuts now being bullish). And your predictions based on strong long-term trends from most of 2024 continue to show strength and mindshare in 2025 (eg BTC ETF strength, tokens like ENA, AAVE, SOL, SUI).
I'm basing this prediction on a few things I've noticed after reading / listening to a LOT of 2024 and 2025 predictions the last few days. I've noticed:
There's always a strong desire to be early to narratives, but does it produce the best net results? Or an unhelpful bias (for the average trador)?
Are we biased towards thinking the status quo trends of the last few weeks will continue to dominate the narrative?
Why is it always something we didn't predict that ends up dominating the mindshare and macro? Yet it always seems obviously in hindsight.
Are all our '2025' predictions actually just 'H1 2025' predictions? (Are there events occurring (or winds set to change) in H2 that don't seem noteworthy right now (e.g an election) that could make our predictions for next year seem short-sighted in hindsight?
My main holdings going into 2025 are:
JLP on 2x multiplier (majority of portfolio),
10k PFP collections,
Boring defi: MKR, ENA, MORPHO.
These are my year-long holds but I wonder how long I'll actually keep these tokens before I lose conviction and jump on the next-big-thing.
Thanks for all your writings this year Kyle; I'm looking forward to seeing how our predictions evolve.
I think it is absolutely wrong to neglect meme coins. I believe in the Memecoin Supercycle.
well thought out Kyle
Thank you for reviewing your 2024 gameplan so fairly. And then being brave enough to have another punt for 2025!
Maybe the takes you got 'wrong' in 2024 were just on the wrong time horizon, and will prove to be correct in the long term.
My own amateur prediction is that your predictions based on trends of the last couple of months mostly play out differently (eg NFT projects' fungible tokens, HYPE a top L1, AI agents/swarms/consumer #1 pick for 2025, rate cuts now being bullish). And your predictions based on strong long-term trends from most of 2024 continue to show strength and mindshare in 2025 (eg BTC ETF strength, tokens like ENA, AAVE, SOL, SUI).
I'm basing this prediction on a few things I've noticed after reading / listening to a LOT of 2024 and 2025 predictions the last few days. I've noticed:
There's always a strong desire to be early to narratives, but does it produce the best net results? Or an unhelpful bias (for the average trador)?
Are we biased towards thinking the status quo trends of the last few weeks will continue to dominate the narrative?
Why is it always something we didn't predict that ends up dominating the mindshare and macro? Yet it always seems obviously in hindsight.
Are all our '2025' predictions actually just 'H1 2025' predictions? (Are there events occurring (or winds set to change) in H2 that don't seem noteworthy right now (e.g an election) that could make our predictions for next year seem short-sighted in hindsight?
My main holdings going into 2025 are:
JLP on 2x multiplier (majority of portfolio),
10k PFP collections,
Boring defi: MKR, ENA, MORPHO.
These are my year-long holds but I wonder how long I'll actually keep these tokens before I lose conviction and jump on the next-big-thing.
Thanks for all your writings this year Kyle; I'm looking forward to seeing how our predictions evolve.
What do you think about Grass as AI/Depin adjacent for this prediction?
1. DePIN gets implemented by a serious company in a serious manner, somehow. Maybe an acquisition.
Big thanks
This was an amazing read !
All of it.
Great thread
Thank you for doing it
I do believe that we need to be like “water” constantly seeing the new narrative and changing our positions.
Thanks for this one again, well written makes sense and hope we can see some of these things play out in 2025. Let's go
Enjoyed reading this, thank you Kyle