GM! Sorry for not posting for the past few weeks - I’ve been taking some time off touching grass. It turned out to be a huge mistake, as the EDM Fest was sorely lacking; meanwhile, coins were sending. Fun Fact: Did you know David Guetta is 56?! He looked so tired during his set LMAO. Oh wells.
Anyways - the same disclaimers apply: At the end of the day, trading is a very individual sport, and you should always form your own opinions instead of fully piggybacking off others. Every coin in here will be sold to USD, so don’t go marrying the bag.
GM. It looks like I’ve missed a ton of stuff! We have INJ and TIA hitting ATHs, AVAX making a cool 3x, BEAM continuing to outperform - it’s a crazy market!
Anyways, if you don’t know - I recently published my 2024 Memo. The memo offers a comprehensive view of how I believe 2024 will play out. If you haven’t read it, do check it out here:
Market Read 📊
On the higher time frames, the core idea remains unchanged - long only until the macro event (rate cuts). I’m also slowly starting to believe that the January ETF will be a buy-the-news event - a 180 shift from the stance I’ve previously held.
Like I said, I thought it to be sell-the-news before because everyone thought it was a buy-the-news event. Opinion has since changed, with more people believing the opposite.
It has essentially become a big dilemma, with the market being caught in a web of conflicting expectations. In such cases, I’m persuaded to return to the fundamentals - in this case, an ETF is most definitely bullish - and so, upOnly.
On the lower timeframes we had a nice flush to 40k yesterday. I bidded the psychological round numba barrier, and I think that we continue seeing these hard flushes while slowly grinding up.
And - like the tweet above says, I believe that these hard flushes are another indicator that the ETF will be a buy-the-news event.
As I have constantly advocated, the best way to position yourself is through a spot-long portfolio, with perps to continue playing the narratives. You want to be able to handle the 40% draw-downs we’ll see while we make our way up.
Current Portfolio 💼
As of last week, I’ve completed my allocation in core positions. I don’t expect to rotate out of these bags for the next year or so. You might notice that I don’t own much Bitcoin or Ethereum - I don’t need to. My exposure to these assets are through swing longs on my trading account, which allows for capital efficiency.
Moving forward, this substack will focus on the plays I’m looking at - you can expect this core position to remain the same for most of the coming months unless something catastrophic happens.
Trades 🖥️
God, with 1000 different narratives and airdrops to keep an eye on, it’s virtually impossible to not feel some degree of FOMO. When that happens, remember to take a deep breath - outperformance comes from patience, and the ability to single out trades instead of trying to spread yourself too thin.
One sized up trade > a hundred small trades.
Perps
BEAM / GUILDFI: BEAM has been a monster outperformer, and I’m getting the feeling that people are starting to realise that GUILDFI is helluva good beta to it as well. BEAM has indirectly created a “playbook” for other gaming guilds to follow - I expect competitors to not take it lying down.
TIA: Continuation of the strongest coin
INJ: I cannot bring myself to bid this coin, so I shall not. I don’t even know where to TP if I were to bid it - this /TIA / BEAMare pure UpOnly coins that seem to know no limits. It’s frustrating for sure, but if it can’t fit in my process, I’m forced to ignore it.
BONK: I’m probably looking to get filled on BONK sometime soon. I missed the entire run up, which is frustrating - but I think that this is a market that pays to be long the highest attention coins.
ORDI / STX: Seeing as BTC has the largest catalyst in January, I want to be exposed to Bitcoin beta. I believe that BRC-20s / L2 on BTC has the best chance of outperformance.
NTRN: I think this coin is slept on, and am looking to pick some up as Cosmos / TIA beta
On-Chain
SOL: Wif is a new Solana shitcoin that Ansem recently shilled. I flipped it for a nice 2x, and CBA to stay any longer. I believe in BONK supremacy.
Research:
Grass is a bandwidth-sharing app that has taken CT by storm. Do check it out - make sure you sign up using my ref code for extra points! Sign up here.
Overworld is minting on the 15th of December. This will likely be the largest NFT mint we’ve seen in a couple of months - so definitely keep an eye on floor price (FP) when it drops.
There’s really a lot more that isn’t covered here. Here are some useful airdrop threads I’m looking to act on:
Anyways, that about wraps it up for this week. I’ll see you guys soon!
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