High Conviction Bets #5
Santa Rallies, UpOnly!
GM! Sorry for not posting for the past few weeks - I’ve been taking some time off touching grass. It turned out to be a huge mistake, as the EDM Fest was sorely lacking; meanwhile, coins were sending. Fun Fact: Did you know David Guetta is 56?! He looked so tired during his set LMAO. Oh wells.
Anyways - the same disclaimers apply: At the end of the day, trading is a very individual sport, and you should always form your own opinions instead of fully piggybacking off others. Every coin in here will be sold to USD, so don’t go marrying the bag.
GM. It looks like I’ve missed a ton of stuff! We have INJ and TIA hitting ATHs, AVAX making a cool 3x, BEAM continuing to outperform - it’s a crazy market!
Anyways, if you don’t know - I recently published my 2024 Memo. The memo offers a comprehensive view of how I believe 2024 will play out. If you haven’t read it, do check it out here:
Market Read 📊
On the higher time frames, the core idea remains unchanged - long only until the macro event (rate cuts). I’m also slowly starting to believe that the January ETF will be a buy-the-news event - a 180 shift from the stance I’ve previously held.
Like I said, I thought it to be sell-the-news before because everyone thought it was a buy-the-news event. Opinion has since changed, with more people believing the opposite.
It has essentially become a big dilemma, with the market being caught in a web of conflicting expectations. In such cases, I’m persuaded to return to the fundamentals - in this case, an ETF is most definitely bullish - and so, upOnly.
On the lower timeframes we had a nice flush to 40k yesterday. I bidded the psychological round numba barrier, and I think that we continue seeing these hard flushes while slowly grinding up.
And - like the tweet above says, I believe that these hard flushes are another indicator that the ETF will be a buy-the-news event.
As I have constantly advocated, the best way to position yourself is through a spot-long portfolio, with perps to continue playing the narratives. You want to be able to handle the 40% draw-downs we’ll see while we make our way up.
Current Portfolio 💼
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