UPtober Or OctOVER?

SEASONALITY, FRONT-RUNNING, AND A GENEROUS ARBTOBER.

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The Almighty Bulla Case

1. Seasonality

Bitcoin Monthly Performance, Coinglass

Bitcoin usually performs well in the month of October, with only 2 years where the monthly return was negative.

2. Rates Hike Being Frontrun

With everyone planning to long “once rates decrease”, it would make sense that the traditional market sees a continued rally until the event passes (i.e sell the news). If correct, hopefully we see a correlation b/w tradfi and crypto. But I think this data point holds less weightage.

3. Stablecoin Dominance Decreasing

Stablecoin dominance has slowly been decreasing as bullas liquidate their stables in the name of Lord Satoshi.

4. BTC Monthly Breakout

The Bitcoin monthly chart closed below 27.2k on September, yet has already blasted through it on the 2nd day of October. Heikin-Ashi signals also pointing green.

Dirty Bera Case

1. Fundamentals haven’t changed

Ethereum ETF, Bitcoin ETF still haven’t actually come. It’s once again a game of hot potato, with over 12bn in OI being added in the last 24 hours. We’re pumping into nothing.

2. Mt. Gox Overhang

This has been a recycled narrative but yes, turns out there’s still gajillions in BTC being held at the sake of the government / FTX / entities. As the same with SOL pumping despite knowing Alameda holds millions of their tokens, this is a non-event in my eyes.

Overall

Vibes feel different. Different in a good way. I’m long, my active management portfolio is like this currently:

With plans to accumulate: