Round 2: Fight!
Trade ideas if Bitcoin manages to hold above 50k and we see continued PvE mode
GM. Can you feel it in your bones? Rushing through your blood. Circulating throughout your body. It rings in your ears. The euphoria. The madness. The rush.
Send it. Send it all.
If you’ve been here since the bear market and are enjoying BTC at 50 keks, then congratulations. It’s been 3 years since we hit 69k, and GOD it felt a lot longer than that. 3AC was almost 2 years ago, and FTX was more than a year ago.
I’ll keep this brief. As I’ve said time and again, I don’t know why you’d be bearish here. I’m like a broken record (and have been, for a while) - On HTFs until rate cuts, nothing is stopping us.
The ETF was a short-term bearish and long-term bullish event. With enough time passed (GBTC redemptions, Celsius selling, etc.) we’re at the part where the ETF is now an unstoppable monster. We’re seeing daily inflows of 700 MILLION dollars coming in to buy BTC, and this isn’t slowing down.
I believe in Trad-Fi. I believe that these guys know what they’re doing, and obviously the earlier you buy, the better of an entry you get, the more profits you get. It’s really George Soros’ reflexivity - just now angled upwards.
They’ll keep buying because they’re “still early” - until price comes to a point where it doesn’t seem as attractive anymore - then we pullback (I assume ATHs), then it starts going up again, then the late longers realise that this can go infinitely up, and then all pile in (we sell here).
For an IRL example of this, look at NVDA. At every point, people have shouted “this is overvalued!”. But look! It just keeps going up, until it forces your hand. The tipping point will of course, be when everyone is on the goddamn train. But until then, long your longs, and hold on for dear life.
Trade Ideas
Let’s get straight into it.
APT / SEI / SUI: The L1 trades of February 2023, and Jan 2024. These are pushed solely on narratives because if you look at their TVLs, you’d be aghast. Attention is what dominates this space, and nothing grabs attention better than price going up.
Speaking of price going up, you’ve had MAVIA show us the true potential of gaming coins. With the MAVIA run up, BEAM basically 2x’ed in a couple of hours. For gaming, I really just like BEAM and PRIME - I think that the betas (SHRAP, MAGIC, AXS, etc.) underperform with not that much risk-adjusted returns. This isn’t statistical, but just going off purely from intuition. Again, new shiny coins > old doomer coins
In the AI sector, there’s too many to count, but here are the names I like
On CEX, we really only have RNDR. I like AKT, but it’s too inaccessible right now. Oh - we also have $AI, which could do well - but it’s not something I enjoy buying. RNDR just has too much going for it - now that the Kenetic seller is out, we’d hopefully see some positive price action
Next up, everyone’s favourite TAO. This is a thousand dollar coin, I can feel it in my bones. I don’t really know what to say here - other than the fact that this thing just keeps going up. If you’re on-chain, look into buying wTAO for exposure because TAO isn’t currently on any T1 CEXs for spot (it is on Bybit perps though)
ETH
ETH ETF is more than likely gonna happen, which is why you’re seeing insane candles on ETH right now. People are front-running the ETF trade, and that leads me to ETH BETA
L2: BLUR (Blast + NFT market confluence) / ARB / OP
LSD: PENDLE / LDO / FXS / RPL / SSV
From memory, LSDs are a more direct play to ETH than L2s, which didn’t see that big of a pump the last time we had an ETH god-candle. I like Pendle the most, out of all LSDs.
New, shiny tokens
DYM - Dymension is one of those low-float, high FDV tokens. The issue is finding out the % of supply staked - but other than that, the metrics look good - spot buying, OI going relatively flat-ish but price going up;
ZETA - I have no clue what this coin does but by god does it go up. It reminds me of those DWF coins we used to see - and I like this coin alot
ONDO - Blackrock RWA coin. I have no thoughts about this.
PYTH - Solana coin that re-emerged from the depths. Also, no thoughts.
ALT - might be good ETH beta, but otherwise, idk. No idea.
BTC Beta
STX legit just going god-mode and 2x’ing in a day. Very happy for the STX lovers out there (I was sadly not one of them)
On-Chain
Now we get to the good part. God, I love On-chain tokens.
AI:
On-chain you have a couple to choose from:
OLAS - this has made a major recovery since the whole “team selling” debacle
Arbius - this new AI coin that launched a couple of hours ago went up 3x just because it was followed by Marc Andreessen - being a16z incubated, it might be worth a look
comAI - TAO beta that has done exceedingly well. I love this one.
TAOPAD - launchpad for TAO
And of course, you have the unlaunched ones: Ritual, Gensyn, IO.NET, HyperspaceAI
ERC-404s: This died down pretty quickly, but MAYBE we see a resurgence as an ETH beta
I’d probably only ape PANDORA if it came to that - betas just aren’t great
MOG: This is a meme coin that revisited ATHs - something basically never done befoer in the history of a memecoin. It has an insane cult & community, and honestly 100M mcap doesn’t seem too far of a dream for it
That’s all for now, but if the market continues giving us so many opportunities like this, I’m gonna have to ramp up the speed at which I produce these articles.
Leave a like if you enjoyed reading this or I’ve added value to your trades! And good luck out there.
<3, Kyle
Thank you for the interesting analysis.
Thanks, great newsletter.
Daily 700 BILLION? ;)