$PEOPLE - A Bet On The Politi-Fi Season
Elections will dominate the news cycle in H2 2024, and this is my bet
Dear Diary,
Today was the day before FOMC. It’s a bloodbath out there. Alts getting slaughtered, and my timeline is so bearish that it’s making me go crazy. There’s this guy on substack now telling me to buy this coin called $PEOPLE because of the upcoming elections? I’m gonna go touch grass.
As we wait for CPI and FOMC to come out tomorrow, I bring to you an extremely simple trade idea that I’ve been looking at for a while now. As we all know, the crypto market runs on narratives, and as election season draws nearer, we’re about to head into a narrative that I believe will dominate news cycle as the year draws to a close.
Without further ado, let’s dive in.
Thesis
With the recent announcement of an ETH ETF, we’re clearly seeing changes to the USA’s stance towards crypto regulation. I wrote about this in my latest trade idea - the ETH ETF trade:
The idea is that crypto has become a bi-partisan issue that politicians are taking seriously - and given that this is election year, a certain Republican President is making his stance on this clear:
As such, crypto now has become a political issue - and as we’re well familiar with, in crypto, attention is the name of the game. It seems clear to me that we’re bound to see certain coins trend with the ever-increasing narrative of what is now being called Politi-Fi (Political-Fi) - now, your job is to just figure out what to long.
Looking At Existing Politi-Fi Tokens
As with all memes, there are some simple rules of engagement:
Memes are an attention game. Fragmented attention = bad. You want to only invest in the top ones (e.g PEPE, WIF, etc.) Derivatives of the “main meme” is almost always bad on a longer term - short term outperformer, long term underperformer
Liquidity is king. The best memes are the most liquid ones - memes that are on more exchanges / etc. benefit from having more liquidity, more eyes on them, and thus more green candles
In my head, there’s really only two real competitors:
TRUMP - 600m mcap
BODEN - 132m mcap
PEOPLE currently sits between the two, at 580m mcap. However, I believe that PEOPLE will surpass both of them to be the “De-Facto Memecoin”.
Don’t get me wrong - I think both of these tokens will still pump into H2 2024 - however, there are a few structural reasons why I believe their upside is capped, and thus why I believe PEOPLE still remains the best way to express your opinion on the PolitiFi narrative.
TRUMP and BODEN are a bit too consensus
This is a big reason for me - the fact that they are painfully obvious trades to take for the average narrative trader. “Oh, a token named after Donald Trump in an election year? Isn’t this a long?” - Yes, we’ve seen this trade play out successfully throughout the year.
However, I believe that these coins will start facing diminishing returns at some point. Because what was once a “buy the news” event has become a “front-run the frontrunners” into a “everyone has already bought, who is left to buy?” kind of situation. Let me break it down:
Trump says something → $TRUMP pumps → People extrapolate this by thinking: It’s election season, Trump will continue churning out news → Buy before hand so that I don’t have to react → Everyone starts piling in on the trade → There is no one left to buy → Instead, it starts selling hard on the news
We actually saw this in recent TRUMP price action:
$PEOPLE is bi-partisan
The core idea behind this trade is the fact that these tokens are supposed to reflect “attention on the elections” - however TRUMP and BODEN are more similar to social tokens that reflect the popularity of the said individual.
This essentially splits capital inflow - however, PEOPLE is bi-partisan and doesn’t represent any bet on a party, but rather a bet on the political scene in general. It’s a more non-biased way to express your position in the general election scene without taking a side.
Exchange listings might be a no-go
This is probably another big reason that I favour PEOPLE more than political tokens - the fact that listing TRUMP and BODEN on Binance / Bybit might be extremely difficult. Obviously, I know nothing about exchange listing requirements - I might be very wrong right now, and tomorrow a tier 1 exchange lists TRUMP.
However, I believe that this is a factor worth considering - listing a political coin that obviously expresses a certain person seems like it would flaunt some sort of regulation in some way - as such, I prefer $PEOPLE, which is already on Tier 1 exchanges.
Again - I do think TRUMP / BODEN might go up (TRUMP more likely than BODEN) - but to me, their upside is capped: The trade of buy and hold trump just lacks the upside when its such a consensus trade.
Power To The $PEOPLE
Thesis:
This is a coin you just keep accumulating when attention goes away - I believe that attention will go up once the election season starts
The only political coin on Binance & Bybit
Soon, the news cycle will be dominated by politics - just like how you accumulated AI in 2024 knowing that every ChatGPT upgrade would pump prices, the same might be done for PolitiFi
Risks & Invalidation:
If it doesn’t go up despite politics being hot
TRUMP and BODEN running but PEOPLE doesn’t run after giving it some time to run (e.g 10 days after MAGA goes vertical, PEOPLE doesn’t do anything)
Generally, a 600m mcap coin is pretty hard to pump - don’t expect a 10x
It’s the ONLY political coin with perps and not many spot dumpers - but the biggest risk is whether it can find that narrative - people need to believe it’s a political coin
Anyways, that’s it for today! It’s 2AM now, so I’m heading to bed. cya.
DISCLAIMER: The information provided in this document is for general informational purposes only and does not constitute financial, investment, or legal advice. The content is based on sources believed to be reliable, but its accuracy, completeness, and timeliness cannot be guaranteed. Any reliance you place on the information in this document is at your own risk. The document may contain forward-looking statements that involve risks and uncertainties. Actual results may differ materially from those expressed or implied in such statements. The author(s) of this document may or may not own positions in the assets or securities mentioned herein. They reserve the right to buy or sell any asset or security discussed at any time without notice. It is essential to consult with a qualified financial advisor or other professional to understand the risks and suitability of any investment decisions you may make. You are solely responsible for conducting your research and due diligence before making any investment choices. Past performance is not indicative of future results. The author(s) disclaim any liability for any direct, indirect, or consequential loss or damage arising from the use of this document or its content. By accessing this document, you agree to the terms of this disclaimer.