High Conviction Bets #8

Learnings From Q1 2024 Of The Bull Market, Positioning and more

Market Read 📊

The Bull Market of 2024 has not been an exceptionally easy one to navigate, despite what CT tells you. Many, many people have been caught offside on the meme pump, only select alts are pumping, and perhaps more pertinent for me, is the fact that profits in this market have to be secured quickly.

Q1 2024 and the tail end of Q4 2023 saw ETF inflows coming in hot, pushing BTC all the way from 40k to where we are now, ranging around the 60k-70k region.

The biggest takeaways I have are:

• It is not a hodlers market anymore. Rotations exist, and it is extremely important to learn to rotate. In other words, secure the profits, and then choose the next narrative to ride.

This could be seen in the many mini-cycles we had at 60k range so far, and the performance of certain once stellar narratives, such as BRC-20 coins (ORDI / SATS) into underperformers. You also have certain narratives like LSTs vastly underperform the broader market, and really the top “high sustaining” narratives this mini-cycle were just BRCs, AI, Memes and Solana.

Past performing tokens like INJ / SEI were nowhere to be seen - sure, a rising tide lifts all boats, but their outperformance was by no means great.