High Conviction Bets #7

A nice breather in the markets after the mania. But how long will it last?

gmgmgmgmgm. I have an announcements - I’m trying to find a better structure for High Conviction Bets (HCB). The nature of this paid newsletter was first to provide portfolio updates, but because the nature of a spot-long portfolio is that it remains static most of the time, I feel like I’m not providing maximum value.

I think maximum value comes from the trading portfolio that I have, so I’m going to try playing with different structures - spending less time on the spot portfolio, and more on the trades. I’m also more of a HTF trader, and try not to trade below the D1, so it fits nicely w the weekly pace of the substack

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Market Read 📊

My telegram channel correctly forecasted the arrival of a downtrend:

I also think another top signal for me was this:

where ETH OI simply blew past OI at ATH prices. Funding was incredibly negative, and generally everyone was frothing at the mouth expecting higher prices. Now that we’ve gotten a pullback, the issue with being a bera is that you never know when to stop.

I will be honest - I have no idea where the bottom is. No one does. In an ideal world though, I will say that my bera thesis plays out if prices goes to 48k. The problem is where I’m wrong - it looks something like:

• OI goes up price goes up, showing that market can be even more stupid than it currently is

• Alts have a sustained rally as BTC trades sideways here

• CME inflows become positive AND it pushes prices (CME has not been pushing prices lately)

I simply do nothing in these conditions. Other than AI coins, BTC and ETH, nothing feels good to long. I think this is a sit on hands season, and patience will pay off.

Current Portfolio 💼

Nothing much has changed, but I am looking to add more coins to my spot long portfolio. Some top contenders are:

• Increasing my PRIME allocation

• Increasing my KREST allocation

• comAI

• Root

But right now, I’m just chilling.

Trades 🖥️

Perps 📈

Again, nothing is appealing to market long in this market. I do have bids for the following coins though:

• TIA

  • TIA has been quite underlooked this mini-cycle, but every dog has its day. It’s definitely appealing in the $15 zone

• BEAM

  • While I’m bullish GameFi, I did not expect it to have the strength that it did because people generally hate longing GameFi given that everyone knows it’s a big scam from last cycle. However, price proves everyone wrong and it’s definitely a narrative to stick with

• RNDR

  • AI. That’s it. RNDR is up like 10% on today’s NVDA news, which is crazy, considering everything else is going down.

I also am looking to enter a swing BTC long with a target of 50k → 69k.

On-Chain ⛓️

On-Chain is definitely more interesting, but at the same time, it’s also pretty dead. My current portfolio consists of:

• MOG

  • The literal best memecoin that has a fantastic chart. It’s pixel perfect, down to the S/R lines. When meme szn comes back, this should tap 100m mcap.

• MAVIA

  • MAVIA hit some of my limit bids, so I am now a community member. Depending on how it continues performing, I may be forced to cut it; generally, I think steam on this coin has died for the next few days - who is left to buy?

• comAI

  • AI token that I’ve been slowly buying - but at the same time, not too much, just because I’m already so overexposed to TAO.

On my watchlist:

• ROOT: Gaming / L1 metaverse play that I know some smart people are in. I haven’t done enough research, though

• POKT: Shilled by ZoomerOracle, POKT is a dePIN AI play that has been silently sending

• GLM: Golem, an AI protocol, has been shilled all over the timeline. I don’t like this trade that much because I feel like it’s running out of steam, tbh. Also, Binance announcing the listing for it probably is a top signal.

This week is really boring - use this time to go touch grass.

As always, I’ll see you all next week. <3, Kyle