High Conviction Bets #6

Changes in positioning, how I screwed up last mini-cycle, and more!

gmgmgmgmgm. It’s been a while since my last portfolio update, so really excited to be back at my desk and trading. As always, this is not financial advice, and and you should always form your own opinions instead of fully piggybacking off others. Every coin in here will be sold to USD, so don’t go marrying the bag.

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Market Read 📊

I’ll keep this one short and sweet - I believe it’s time to pay attention again. This is round 6 of the bull run, and the start of another mini-cycle. The past few weeks have been incredibly choppy, with BTC ranging around 42-43k.

Of course, sell the news ETF played out as expected, and the “short-term bearish, long term bullish” event started forming as BTC broke out of the range to 47k. I’ve repeated this in my Telegram channel (link here) as well - HTF, it makes no sense to be bearish post-ETF.

With millions of dollars buying BTC everyday, I just don’t see the case for being bearish.

The next macro event that I see affecting the markets disproportionately will be rate cuts - but until then, we remain long. And as always, as BTC goes up, alts will fall in BTC terms - but when it starts consolidating, that would be the starting signal for an alt rally.

I simply believe the vibes in the market have changed from just a week ago - things couldn’t catch a bid, most people were getting chopped up; we’re finally getting easy mode again, the same mode we saw late November - January 2023.