P.S. I’m heading to New York City (NYC) for a year in January 2024, and am looking for a crypto internship as an analyst for that duration! Open to anything from working at protocols & startups to venture / liquid funds. If you know anyone interested / you’re looking for one yourself, please feel free to email me at 0x.kyle3@gmail.com, or DM me on Twitter! <3
Introduction
GM. Welcome to Week 2 of the series “High Conviction Bets”, where your trusty analyst 0xKyle (me) updates you with trade ideas and portfolio updates. Remember - at the end of the day, trading is a very individual sport, and you should always form your own opinions instead of fully piggybacking off others.
Every coin in here will be sold to USD at the end of the day, so don’t go marrying the bag. That being said, let’s dive in.
Market Read
Last week, I made the verdict of “trending, buy the pullback”. I’ve realized that it doesn’t really carry across the nuance in my beliefs, so I’ve scrapped that idea. Instead, I’ll just talk about what I see.
Generally, BTC has been trading in the range of 33k to 34k for most of the past two weeks. This compression has got me on the edge of my seat as it seems reminiscent of market conditions we’ve had a lot in 2023 - price trades in a tight range and it suddenly expands.
On LTFs - we can and will assume we’re in a range until we’re not.
Currently, I’ve observed that the bear market PTSD is still fresh in everyone’s minds. With the excitement of breaking YTD highs fading, altcoin rotations are slowing down.
Intuitively, it seems to me that alt selection will matter a lot more in the coming weeks. When we first broke the range highs, every alt was outperforming. Now, only a select few are seeing outperformance as the music slows down.
Quite frankly though, I think something fundamentally has changed in the higher time frames. It’s hard to describe it in quantitative terms - just that a certain switch has been flipped. Time-based capitulation has done its job when you see CT still remaining pretty desolate even after such a move to the upside.
Lastly, the ETH/BTC trade I talked about in the previous week might be one of those “idea is good, but execution is difficult” ideas. Going from past cycles, ETHBTC has bottomed near 0.02606. So while I still believe in the trade, it’s gonna be a pain in the ass to execute it perfectly on the higher time-frames.
Current Portfolio
Perps
NEAR Long. I quite like this trade
Creds to Zoomer for this:
Founder has huge AI background (narrative rn), co-authored the biggest AI paper ever
Been active in bear market
Low mcap as L1 , lagging vs other L1s
Most of the supply circulating
CT is not in it
My personal analysis - Nearcon has historically shown to go uponly in past conferences (I can’t find the source). More importantly, look at the chart - OI has stayed pretty much the same, yet the price has been going up. Spot bid has been immense - almost 4M worth of spot has been bidding $NEAR. Someone wants to be filled! This + thin order books has led to a near (haha) 40% increase since the bottom.
SOL Spot Long. This is a long-term bet for me, and I’ve been filled since $20 - $24. I wrote an 11-pager for the premium subs reading this, so you can refer to that to know why I’m bullish on SOL.
That’s about it. Closed off most of my perp trades, looking to take new ones.
On-Chain
Rollbit. About 25% of my portfolio is RLB, which is sizeable for me. I wrote a report on this too - and while I was bearish on it when I wrote it, I believe it has been bottomed out. Perhaps more importantly, the FUD about the buy-back and burn has been addressed (that was a big point for me in whether my thesis was invalidated or not).
Empyreal. This is a bit of a big-brain project about SDKs on Arbitrum, and honestly, it’s not a big bag for me. But essentially it’s an infra-play, that has a primary goal of “simplifying the complexities inherent to Web3 development, enabling developers of all expertise levels to efficiently build robust and user-centric blockchain products.”
Unibot. I bought some during the hack yesterday, and like Empyreal, it’s not a big bag - around 5% of my portfolio. I don’t really see price appreciating in the short term, and while the project is good and I will look to buy more of it in the coming days, I feel that capital can be more efficiently used elsewhere.
JOE / SPX. I got hacked on Unibot for both JOE and SPX, but hopefully it’ll get reimbursed LOL. I like both as memes, although SPX’s recent underperformance has me worried. I’ll probably not add to both for the time being - I’ll just wait for the reimbursement to happen.
Trades That I’m Looking At
Perps
WLD. I’m looking to long this into OpenAI’s conference on 6 November
DOGE. I’m not too convicted on this trade, but Kabosu’s birthday is on Nov 2. I might long this if a good entry is given.
$BIGTIME / SAND / MANA - I’m liking Gamefi as I think it’s being underlooked right now, but it’s hard to execute without a specific time duration. Working on this thesis at the moment.
CFX 0.00%↑- Chinese koin that’s loved by CT, will look to build positions in it if given a favourable entry.
On-Chain
AI - I’m actually not long any AI coins because of how little R/R they seem to have currently. With coins like IMGNAI and BOTTO up more than 100%, I prefer to find other things that I have higher conviction. Just thought I’d talk about this. I was bullish IMGNAI, but sold it after the recent announcement with Nvidia.
RVST - I’m looking to build a position in RVST in the coming days, as I think it has the potential of being a 100mm mcap project minimally.
SOLANA ECO - I’m really gearing up for this, and I know I’ve missed much of the pump, I think it still has room to run. Truth is, I’ve been too lazy to bridge and clearly, that has come to bite me in the ass. Some tokens I’d buy are: MNDE / BONK / maaaybe NEON (need to do more research!).
ARB - I’m seeing chatters of the revitalization of the ARB Eco. I’m not too convinced myself, but it’s worth looking into. Tokens are: JONES and MOZ.
Truth be told, I’m fairly comfy in my Rollbit position. I’m pretty convicted in it and am more than happy to continue sizing into it.
That’s about it for this week. I hope you enjoyed it, and I’ll see you guys next week.
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