DISCLAIMER: The information contained in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Any opinions expressed in this newsletter are solely mine.
Welcome to the sixth week of weekly market narratives, the substack gets you up to speed with the narratives that I’m looking at. If you don’t know, I’m writing a short series teaching you how to trade narratives. Check out the second post here.
Executive Summary
$BTC 7D: +13.2% | $ETH 7D: +10.6%
GM to everyone who reads this. This week has been a fantastic week for us narrative traders. The $BLUR airdrop catalyzed much of the increased liquidity in the space - free money almost always does this. I sense increased excitement in the air as crypto markets look to push higher - we’ve been testing range highs of BTC for a while now, and ultimate bullish / echo bubble scenario would be breaking out of this range and pushing 30k.
With top CT traders like lightcrypto coming out of the meditation zone to post straightforward tweets like this, CT is getting excited about the prospects of a bull market, and so am I. I have to warn you guys though, that I still don’t think this is a bull market - I’m on the side of the echo bubbler. But as I said, peak echo bubble to me will look almost identical to a bull market - when we go high enough that people say “we’re so back”, and then we come crashing down twice as hard. But that’s just my two cents.
Tweet Of The Week:
Market Narratives
Blur, duh.
$BLUR 7D: +178.35%
Look. Product is good, tech is good, airdrop holders have literally dumped all their tokens (pic related, thanks jithinraj). The thesis here is simple - and simple is great. Simple is what you want for narratives. The best narratives have always been simple - ETH killer, AI, NFT marketplace coin. Complicated narratives always don’t last for long - e.g zkEVM (everyone has zero knowledge of that)
I actually wrote a longer form thesis that I might release, but in the event that I don’t, just know that it’s really, really simple. I particularly love NFT coins because you’re targeting two audiences - CT and NFT traders. This drastically shifts the dynamic of market participants and introduces extra liquidity - both of which are great for a newly launched token that just entered price discovery.
A before B, but B before A? Arbitrum Tokens See A Run-Up
$MAGIC 7D: +31.6% | $ARC 7D: +278.66%
Everyone’s speculating that $ARBI is going to drop soon, and in typical CT fashion, has front-runned the event. I’m not complaining though, if you guys remembered - last week we had the whole “zk-EVM” narrative, and I was telling my pals that it was more likely that this hot ball of money would instead rotate to the nearest “thing” - L2s. In any case, $ARBI tokens are seeing a decent bid and if they actually drop $ARBI during this period, expect an insane parabolic shape of some of the stronger performers.
A particular narrative that has been showing itself on $ARBI is also the whole “Camelot Dex” narrative - anything launched on that platform has seen incredible strength. I don’t think it’s sustainable, but I do think that their main token - $GRAIL, is worth looking into.
Some Arbi Tokens: $MAGIC/$GMX/$GRAIL/$ARC/$y2K/$PSI/$OATH/$VELA/$PLS/$JONES
Perps Catching A Bid
Decentralized perps have caught a bid; especially with $LEVEL going up like 1000% or something (decentralized perps on BNB). With $GNS announcing a Binance listing, it might be worth looking into this area for continued upside. Personally, I have no edge in this and will not be longing EXCEPT perhaps $dYdX, only because I still hope that v4 will drop soon. Based on past performance though, I have low hopes for this. They have been delaying that for months already… sigh!
Decentralized Casino YET AGAIN
$RLB 7D: +93.8% | $ARC 7D: +278.66%
Ever since Rollbit took the world by storm, everyone has been harping on decentralized casinos as the next narrative. With tons of tokens popping up (especially on Arbi), this isn’t a great sign IMO. There’s sooo many decentralized casino tokens right now - I’m still betting big on Rollbit though, and have a little on ARC which I don’t really know what to do with. I do think that Rollbit beats the rest by an insane margin - mostly because most of these coins are pumping based on hype, whereas Rollbit actually has real users and real MOAT.
Some names: $DICE/$ARC/$RLB/$ROUL/ JustBet
Individual Tokens:
$CFX did a 3x on the news that Chinese coins are pumping, and also their partnership with a Chinese telecos
$FIL 7D up +61.76%, pumping on the news of an EVM chain launching - also, Chinese coin gud
$ASTR 7D up +36.8% on the news that Sony has teamed up with them to launch a Web3 incubation program for NFTs and DAOs
$BTRFLY is up 58.5% on news of possible Dinero launch + having been shipping product after product
Bitcoin Ordinals / Ordinex… or something? I have 0 clue about this, just thought I should add it because it was getting lots of attention. Stacks (BTC De-Fi or something) is up +38.1% because of the recent BTC Hype
Heading Into Next Week:
I’m still betting big on $BLUR
I will be looking at $ARBI if it drops, and betting big on that
Todo list for me is to look into BTC coins (i.e Ordinex, etc.) . I’m getting tired of the china coins / arbi coins / gambling / dex narratives - think we need something new. This is new.
I am a new reader and I am enjoying your analysis! I have made it part of my weekly routine.
Thanks 0xKyle for your work. Real outstanding stuff here💯💯