0xKyle's Weekly Market Narratives #6

Just vibin. 20 Feb - 26 Feb, 2023.

DISCLAIMER: The information contained in this newsletter is for informational purposes only and should not be considered financial or investment advice. Any opinions expressed in this newsletter are solely mine.

---

Welcome to the sixth week of weekly market narratives, the substack gets you up to speed with the narratives that I’m looking at. If you don’t know, I’m writing a short series teaching you how to trade narratives. Check out the second post here.

Executive Summary

$BTC 7D: +13.2% | $ETH 7D: +10.6%

GM to everyone who reads this. This week has been a fantastic week for us narrative traders. The $BLUR airdrop catalyzed much of the increased liquidity in the space - free money almost always does this. I sense increased excitement in the air as crypto markets look to push higher - we’ve been testing range highs of BTC for a while now, and ultimate bullish / echo bubble scenario would be breaking out of this range and pushing 30k.

light @lightcrypto

kisses $30k in a week

With top CT traders like lightcrypto coming out of the meditation zone to post straightforward tweets like this, CT is getting excited about the prospects of a bull market, and so am I. I have to warn you guys though, that I still don’t think this is a bull market - I’m on the side of the echo bubbler. But as I said, peak echo bubble to me will look almost identical to a bull market - when we go high enough that people say “we’re so back”, and then we come crashing down twice as hard. But that’s just my two cents.

Tweet Of The Week:

Kun @0x_Kun

Traders have a stop loss and upside target Investors have a thesis Similarly as an investor you need to stay true to your thesis and sell if the thesis is broken or once thesis is met Difference is unlike a trader your stop loss is a break of idea instead of a break in price

Market Narratives

Blur, duh.

$BLUR 7D: +178.35%

Look. Product is good, tech is good, airdrop holders have literally dumped all their tokens (pic related, thanks jithinraj). The thesis here is simple - and simple is great. Simple is what you want for narratives. The best narratives have always been simple - ETH killer, AI, NFT marketplace coin. Complicated narratives always don’t last for long - e.g zkEVM (everyone has zero knowledge of that)

I actually wrote a longer form thesis that I might release, but in the event that I don’t, just know that it’s really, really simple. I particularly love NFT coins because you’re targeting two audiences - CT and NFT traders. This drastically shifts the dynamic of market participants and introduces extra liquidity - both of which are great for a newly launched token that just entered price discovery.

A before B, but B before A? Arbitrum Tokens See A Run-Up

$MAGIC 7D: +31.6% | $ARC 7D: +278.66%

Everyone’s speculating that $ARBI is going to drop soon, and in typical CT fashion, has front-runned the event. I’m not complaining though, if you guys remembered - last week we had the whole “zk-EVM” narrative, and I was telling my pals that it was more likely that this hot ball of money would instead rotate to the nearest “thing” - L2s. In any case, $ARBI tokens are seeing a decent bid and if they actually drop $ARBI during this period, expect an insane parabolic shape of some of the stronger performers.

A particular narrative that has been showing itself on $ARBI is also the whole “Camelot Dex” narrative - anything launched on that platform has seen incredible strength. I don’t think it’s sustainable, but I do think that their main token - $GRAIL, is worth looking into.

Some Arbi Tokens: $MAGIC/$GMX/$GRAIL/$ARC/$y2K/$PSI/$OATH/$VELA/$PLS/$JONES

Perps Catching A Bid

Fabian D. @_FabianHD

Perps catching a bid this week, all of which have fully retraced last weeks correction and even surpassed it... except for $DYDX which is lagging the group. Expecting that to change soon

Decentralized perps have caught a bid; especially with $LEVEL going up like 1000% or something (decentralized perps on BNB). With $GNS announcing a Binance listing, it might be worth looking into this area for continued upside. Personally, I have no edge in this and will not be longing EXCEPT perhaps $dYdX, only because I still hope that v4 will drop soon. Based on past performance though, I have low hopes for this. They have been delaying that for months already… sigh!

Decentralized Casino YET AGAIN

$RLB 7D: +93.8% | $ARC 7D: +278.66%

Ever since Rollbit took the world by storm, everyone has been harping on decentralized casinos as the next narrative. With tons of tokens popping up (especially on Arbi), this isn’t a great sign IMO. There’s sooo many decentralized casino tokens right now - I’m still betting big on Rollbit though, and have a little on ARC which I don’t really know what to do with. I do think that Rollbit beats the rest by an insane margin - mostly because most of these coins are pumping based on hype, whereas Rollbit actually has real users and real MOAT.

Some names: $DICE/$ARC/$RLB/$ROUL/ JustBet

Individual Tokens:

• $CFX did a 3x on the news that Chinese coins are pumping, and also their partnership with a Chinese telecos

• $FIL 7D up +61.76%, pumping on the news of an EVM chain launching - also, Chinese coin gud

• $ASTR 7D up +36.8% on the news that Sony has teamed up with them to launch a Web3 incubation program for NFTs and DAOs

• $BTRFLY is up 58.5% on news of possible Dinero launch + having been shipping product after product

• Bitcoin Ordinals / Ordinex… or something? I have 0 clue about this, just thought I should add it because it was getting lots of attention. Stacks (BTC De-Fi or something) is up +38.1% because of the recent BTC Hype

Heading Into Next Week:

• I’m still betting big on $BLUR

• I will be looking at $ARBI if it drops, and betting big on that

• Todo list for me is to look into BTC coins (i.e Ordinex, etc.) . I’m getting tired of the china coins / arbi coins / gambling / dex narratives - think we need something new. This is new.