0xKyle's Market Color #29
Happy Bitcoin Halving! Reasons to be bullish Q2 2024
GM. Hope everyone’s been having a wonderful week. Life is good, everybody. Just wanted to say that. Anyways, enjoy.
Executive Summary 📝
After what we saw last week, I repeatedly said that the fact that we didn’t break 60k was extremely bullish - after all, sentiment was max bearish, and we were at range lows.
I believe that the setup was extremely bullish on HTFs - BTC on range lows, sentiment at bottoms, OI flush, alt/BTC charts all reset, largest liquidation event, largest OI reset, etc. - all before the halving.
This essentially becomes a “consolidation” period for BTC right below previous ATHs, which paints a picture for bullish market structures. I’m also of the opinion that the halving was an event that people avoided - markets hate uncertainty, and the halving acted as a sort of “overhang event” that people either hedged, or flat out avoided just to buy later.
In essence, I think Q2 will shape up to be very bullish, hopefully. Alts wise is where my opinion may differ - I think that we’re going to see more of the same - asset selection is key, and that what’s dead will continue dying. Everyday we’re getting more and more inflation for many tokens - and without an increase in the amount of money in the system, these tokens are essentially designed to die by inflation.
Shorting these tokens to hedge out market beta may be an excellent strategy. I also believe that this quarter has the possibility of being slower than Jan - Feb ; i.e we might see a slow grind up instead of the crazy alt season we had earlier. I don’t know, but I’d give it a 30-50% chance of happening.
Ultimately, the bullish trend remains intact, and I’m long and strong.
Market Narratives 🎙️
I’m probably going to combine both on-chain and CEX tokens just because it’s easier to twice instead of referencing the same narrative twice.
Many tokens recovered strongly from the dump, but there are no obvious narratives that can be seen. On-chain wise, there’s no one dominating narrative right now - small pockets of liquidity here and there, but I’m just one man who’s working a Web2 job (not even in crypto!) and so I can’t cover em’ all
Runes, and BTC Beta
Runes as the most hyped protocol to launch on Bitcoin. I’m not the best expert to ask about Runes, especially not about the tech - all I know is that people seem to think this is where money is flowing next.
SATOSHI seems to have done well post-mint, but time will tell whether it can do a sustained pump
Generally, memecoins feel kinda dead-ish - runes feel overhyped and the fact that every influencer was tweeting about it being the next “1000x” platform means that edge is eroded and generally profit as well
CEX Coins: Well BTC L2s had a green week - STX / CFX / CORE, but post halving I just don’t see a catalyst for them to continue performing, at this point they’re just BTC beta
On-chain Coins: BVM - Bitcoin Virtual machine saw quite a run up / PUPS
Ordinals: Prometheans seems to be doing well - they apparently own the #2 run
ETH/BTC’s time to shine
ETHBTC may have finally found a bottom… for the 1029th time. I can’t say for sure, but with the ETH ETF approval coming up, this might be a trade with tailwinds in its favour.
CEX Coins: Ethena, LSD Protocols, L2s, PENDLE
Is AI... back?
AI saw a nice rally this weekend despite NVDA’s recent sharp sell off in the stock market. It’s worth noting that rumor has it GPT-5 is arriving this summer, which may cause a nice rally in AI coins.
You also have other catalysts, like IO_Net (big GPU Mining project that’s been really hyped) launch in Q2 2024 (I heard May), Apple WWDC in June
CEX Coins: NEAR / RNDR / Arweave / TAO / WLD
Gaming…?
Gaming has been one of those narratives that didn’t really stick - it would outperform for like a week, and die off right after. We’re currently seeing some chatter on the usual gaming tokens - would be worth watching what they do
CEX Coins: MAVIA / BEAM / RONIN
Individual Outperformers
These are usually for those coins that I can’t really find a grouping in
CEX Coins: ONDO / SOL / WIF / TON
Social-Fi
Social-Fi has been making the rounds on certain group chats as people discuss friendtech’s airdrop. The market has shown its hand by repricing many friendtech keys - certain influencers like Hsaka and Ansem doing a 5-10x.
On-chain coins: $DEGEN
Other narratives
Go check out c0xswain’s tweet thread on other narratives - he talks about:
Euro Cup
Presidential Election: Long $TRUMP / $BODEN / $RFKJR / $PEPE
and more…
Anyways, that’s all from me this week. I’m sure there are some narratives I’ve missed - as someone whos juggling a full-time non-crypto job, it’s extremely difficult to trade / do work. If there’s anything you want me to cover or think that I missed, please leave a comment / reply to this email! I’ll make sure to add it in next week.
As always, remember to stay safe and stay healthy! I’ll see you guys next week <3
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