0xKyle's Market Color #25
BTC at 66k in 2024: GOD THIS IS SO BEARISH
GM - if any of you are going to NFT NYC, feel free to hmu!
Executive Summary 📝
I’m sorry - I had to bring back the good ol’ tagline of “BTC at 66k in 2024: GOD THIS IS SO BEARISH”. It’s a little embarrassing though, considering how last week I was talking about ATHs and how it was a waste of time to be bearish (LMAO).
But such are the consequences of only posting once a week. On the lower time frames, however, I posted on my Telegram channel that 1bn dollars of inflows on the day of 72k and yet it didn’t budge in hindsight, was atrociously bearish.
We also had massive derisking into FOMC, and as expected, Powell did not raise rates (a raise rate outcome spooked the market because of a hot CPI). The market turned short-term bullish and we quickly rallied off the bottom.
Unfortunately, we’re now in rangebound territories. I’m obviously bullish on higher time-frames, which is why I titled this piece: “BTC at 66k in 2024: GOD THIS IS SO BEARISH”. Zoom out, people! We’re 3k from ATHs of 2021, and for some reason, everyone thinks that it’s the end of the world.
Short-term wise, I have to admit that I have no clue. I’m on the side of rangebound conditions / bullish, though. The past 3 days of IBIT inflows have been terrible - but I think a bottom can be found when these outflows no longer impact the market. Just like how 1bn of inflows didn’t push us past 72k, the bottom might be in when X millions of outflows didn’t push us down a certain price.
A bull case can be made with the latest data - ETF inflows from IBIT seem to be going up, and with that it may bring a renewed pump. A bear case would be more outflows (no one knows what tomorrow brings, and today could be a “one off” event) and the fact that the BTC chart does look primed for more downside.
I will say that the current market conditions are more akin to slightly PvP than PvE though - pumps being sold off quickly, narratives not sticking, etc. Pockets of outperformance will be found in certain names, but otherwise, I’m bing chilling in spot. Obviously, if we start going up again, this will very quickly change.
Market Narratives 🎙️
Most things are down on the weekly, but certain pockets of outperformance like:
FTM - Andre is back, and shitposting on Twitter. FTM is having some sort of upgrade to parallelized EVM, and a bunch of other catalysts like a supposed stablecoin.
STX - Nakamoto upgrade into the halving is a famous trades amongst people I talk to
SUI - World Gaming Conference and SUI has earned itself the name of being a “gaming chain”
ONDO - RWA Narrative because Blackrock recently deployed a tokenized asset fund on ETH! Aaaannnnd ETH still couldn’t catch a bid, smh. 1 ONDO = 1 Condo
APT - I’m not entirely sure why, but I do see traders talking about this as a narrative
CFX: Chinese STX - it’s now a EVM Compatible Bitcoin L2 solution - I see it a lot in WeChat groups I’m in - the Chinese really like the coin.
On-Chain ⛓️
On-chain is slowly heating up - just not on ETH, of course (rest in peace). Base had a short 4 hour season today, but Blast is really blasting off!
Cryptovalleys: A “DFK-esque” game on Blast that has taken Crypto Twitter by storm - going up more than 10x in a week.
SSS: The other game on Blast that was made by the Crabada team. Unfortunately, they got exploited this morning - but by a supposed white hat hacker, so let’s hope everyone gets their funds back (I got hit, rip)
In general, I actually think Blast might take off - Base narrative felt too forced, but Blast has “legit projects” that are doing really well - reminiscent of Harmony One with DFK, and Arbitrum with MAGIC, tbh.
Base chain: TYBG / BRIUN / DOGINME / COIN / ETF / MOCHI / TOSHI as some of the more notable meme coins. I won’t even bother going into what each one does - except that MOCHI / TOSHI are Brian armstrongs cats LOL
Solana: BOME / SMOLE but otherwise general shitcoining I guess
BRC-20 NFTs
Runestones have taken over the world, with everyone getting airdropped random rune NFTs - Runeswords, Tiny vikings, etc. As to whether any of em have value - I’d say no, but it’s always nice to get airdropped things I guess
CHEX - RWA project that Ansem & friends are shilling
That’s it for this weeks market update! Remember,, keep yourselves safe and healthy! See you guys next week <3
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Thank you for this great update. How would you play the runes protocol narrative right now?