0xKyle's Market Color #24

Bitcoin @ 73K. ATHs, here we are.

GM! I hope all of you have been having a wonderful ATH celebration. It is a beautiful feeling - to see my group chats light up with euphoria. It’s like Christmas, but in March! lmeow.

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Executive Summary 📝

In my post around 2-3 weeks ago, I remember writing the line: “BTC at 52k in 2024: GOD THIS IS SO BEARISH” as a sub-title to the market update I pushed out that week. The week before that, I pushed out one titled “BTC at 42k in 2024: GOD THIS IS SO BEARISH”.

All this was to make fun of how people on CT were atrociously bearish despite having the opportunity to front-run millions of dollars of inflows. Fast forward to the present, and here we are - 72k, past ATH - and we’re just getting started.

At this point, I don’t think I want to waste time talking about being bearish, or positioning, etc. If you’re short, you’re either 1) pair trading, 2) hedging your long exposure to shorts, 3) retardio.

Instead, what I find a greater use of my time, is to talk about lessons I’m currently learning in the bull market. The bear market was full of lessons like - don’t get caught up in the sauce, remember the mini-cycle, take profits fast, etc.

The bull market has its own set of lessons, and a key one that I’m learning so far is: Never rotate to chase pumps. This is one that I’ve been struggling with - in a bull market, all your tokens go up, just not in the order that you want them to.

And by the time you sell your old token to ape the new shiny thing that’s rising, you’ll end up not catching the meat of the move, and more likely than not, you’ll be selling the local bottom, and catching the local top of the move. It sucks, and I’ve seen it happen to me for NEAR, TIA, PIXL, etc. Ugh.

Anyways, as for the markets, there’s really not much to summarise. We’re at ATHs, and studying 2020s, we probably have some sort of candle that takes us past to 80k / 90k some time soon.

Unfortunately, market seems to be de-risking in advance of CPI numbers tomorrow - but in my uninformed opinion, this might be a good dip for the sidelinoors to ape into.

The only bearish argument I can make is if the market decides to close below previous ATHs for extended periods of time - it could signify a fake-out and present a bearish argument for LTF traders.

Market Narratives 🎙️

Weekly Top Movers

These are the narratives we’ve seen so far, and I see no reason to stray away from them.

For AI:

• RNDR / NEAR / FET / AGIX

With GTC coming on 18 March and Illia, the co-founder of Near, talking on the same panel as Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvdia, I expect NEAR / RNDR to continue outperforming.

For Gaming:

• BEAM / MAVIA / PIXL / SUI / APT

Gaming Developers Conference is also on March 18. Expect these narratives to take closer hold of the market as we approach the dates, especially if BTC allows for it.

For Memes:

• PEPE / WIF / DOGE / SHIB / FLOKI

Memes led the initial rally, with coins like PEPE and WIF doing a casual 600-700% on the monthly. Memes are also extremely volatile, capable of doing pullbacks of -60% when the overall market nukes -20%, and so must be kept in mind if opening leverage positions on memes.

For individual outperformers:

• SOL / INJ / TIA / ONDO / LINK / etc.

These are individual outperformers that have shown to have good teck - Solana as the retail chain, INJ as the asset that moves 20% in a day, TIA for the modular narrative, ONDO for RWA with Blackrock, Link as the “700D accumulation range” trade, etc.

On-Chain ⛓️

ETH on-chain remains extremely dead compared to the perps markets. Solana memecoins beg to differ, however - many of them are doing well, with recent names like Popcat, joe bidun, etc. all coming out of the woodwork and netting meme traders 1000xes.

Generally I have not had the capacity to look into on-chain markets - it’s tiring enough to keep up with perps, let alone memecoins on SOL - a chain where you could launch a memecoin every minute. It’s also not my edge, so I stay away from it.

On-chain just seems to be a festival of memes on the cheaper chains, mostly SOL / BASE / maybe BLAST. I haven’t seen any incredible mid-cap projects lately.

• MOG - memecoin on ETH, best contender to PEPE maybe?

• TRUMP - I don’t think i have to explain this one

• GENUS - some new dePIN / AI play

• Netmind (NMT) - on BSC, an AI play that is apparently super legit and has been UpOnly since launch day.

• Popcat - SOL memecoin

• MOCHI / TOSHI - Base memecoins, named after Bryan Armstrongs’ cats

• Then you also have BRC20 NFTs, like

  • Puppets

  • $PUP - BRC 20 memecoin for puppets

  • Runes

  • Node monkes

  • Gen art - hashstreams, floraforms, etc.

Generally, with so much stuff, your attention is really easily divided - in cases like this, again: you don’t want to overrotate. Find something, build a thesis, size, and wait.

As usual, thanks for reading! I’m sorry for not pushing out more frequently, I’ve been really busy with IRL stuff / bull market trading (more the latter than the former, tbh. I should listen to my own advice and cut down!)

Remember, above all, keep yourselves safe and healthy! See you guys next week <3

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