0xKyle's Market Color #23
Is the AI Bubble about to pop?
GM! I wrote this draft on Saturday, and then didn’t publish it till Monday - I decided to leave in the Saturday part though, because I thought it’d be interesting to see how things changed in hindsight.
Executive Summary 📝
It’s been a week and we’re still ranging around 50-52k. Nothing much has changed, and neither has my advice of “don’t overtrade, buy good coins, and wait”. But at the same time, this week is not the same as the last - ETHBTC may be finally getting the bid it’s been waiting for this whole time, as people finally realise that we are in fact getting an ETF.
This also comes on the back of the Uniswap Fee switch proposal, where people are speculating that this is but a signal fire for what’s to come.
Generally, AI coins have also been doing extremely well - having two big boons these two weeks - Sora, OpenAI’s text to video model, and a strong NVDA earnings that saw NVDA surge.
However, I also saw a great thread by PaulMacro on Substack where he pointed out that 3 years ago, we saw the headline that said “Crypto in the Classroom” - pointing out that these sorts of articles are top signals because it means retail is in en masse.
This time isn’t different, and we’re seeing “everyday investors” getting rich off these stocks - remember GME, AMC, etc.? This is as top signal as it can get - everyone is already in. This matters because the popping of the NVDA bubble will definitely cascade to AI coins, and also because NVDA has been essentially carrying 15% of the entire SPX YTD.
EDIT: This is me writing when BTC is at 56k. Well, good to see that the me of Saturday told you guys to remain long, because why wouldn’t you? Guess we’re not going to get the ETH bid anytime soon as Bitcoin remains an absolute monster - but it’s coming… soon. very soon. May, in fact, which is in-line with when people expect the ETH ETF to be approved.
Back to the whole AI bubble thing - I think that with BTC inflows being correlated w tradfi, the next major macro event will definitely be rate cuts, and that might be the death knell. But idk tho - apart from that, I think we can continue to remain cautiously stupidly bullish.
Market Narratives 🎙️
Every chain is now AI?
NEAR is pivoting to AGI
Theta went up 45% when the CEO announced that they were “Ushering in a new era of video and AI computing. Theta EdgeCloud”
Memecoins saw a revival as PEPE moved 50% in a day on a short squeeze / supply being cornered / fundamentals just rapidly improving, I guess. Quite sad I missed this obvious trade that has been shilled for months.
AI related coins are doing okay-ish
AKT is the best performer for the AI sector today, as they dropped 3.5 million to for providers to commit NVIDIA GPUs
Render is up, but not outperforming Bitcoin
Your standard tokens from previous narratives are doing well too
Gaming tokens are up, as BEAM had a monster 9% move
SEI is up 10%
SOL is up 6.8%
ALT and PYTH announced that they were listing on Upbit, and saw an instant 10% candle
Well, honestly - alot more things are up, but I figured that these were the best to focus on. When BTC stalls for altszn, you’d likely wanna add only top performers, and not stuff that only performed in-line / underperformed BTC on this rally.
But aside from that - It’s really the season where you throw a dart and hit something that’s up 10%. We’ve waited 2 years for this! Can you believe it?
On-Chain ⛓️
GLM - being narrated as an AI coin with a huge treasury
FLIP - mainnet launching soon
POKT - Depin + rewkang / zoomeroracle shilled
MOG - a memecoin that’s back near ATHs
SHU - Shutter, a new LBP that has some incredible tekk. Might be ETH beta since it does MEV protection stuffs
Alephium - POW blockchain, people speculating that it runs up like Kaspa
comAI - Tao beta
PIXL - New gaming coin with highest DAU, and actually supposedly has a. lit game (I’ve never tried)
Node Monkes - something I’ve. been shilling since 0.1 BTC, and now has caught the attention of NFT whales. 0.4 now.
Puppets - Node monkes beta
Pudgy Penguins - Need I say more?
Kanpai Pandas / Sappy Seals - Pudgy beta
Tis the season to ape first, research later.
As usual, thanks for reading! I’m excited to see where we go in the next months. But remember, above all, keep yourselves safe and healthy! See you guys next week <3
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