0xKyle's Market Color #22
BTC at 52k in 2024: GOD THIS IS SO BEARISH
GM! Current mood: Cloudy with a chance of being a dirt bera. Once again, this is my weekly reminder to anyone in NYC that wants to connect - I’ll be here for a year! Would love to meet ya.
Executive Summary 📝
My market color just two weeks ago was titled “BTC at 42k in 2024: GOD THIS IS SO BEARISH”. It goes to show how:
People will only be bullish at the tops or bullish too late
Some things just don’t change
Paradoxically, the sentiment I’m seeing and feeling right now, at 52k, is the same as what I felt at 42k. People flip-flopping on the TL, changing sentiment, people screaming to run it back to 45k, etc. It’s a chop-fest out there, but I remain a bulliever.
Again, the advice I have in these situations: don’t overtrade, buy good coins, and wait. Personally I think prices will once again be higher soon, so don’t screw yourself over trying to trade the lower timeframes.
The way I’m playing this mini-cycle is quite different from how I played the last mini-cycle from Dec - Jan. It’s clear that it’s not a season to punt things - liquidity is thin, and only select coins are doing well. Highly concentrated bets and patience seem to be the name of the game, and as such I have positions in select coins that I just don’t touch.
Market Narratives 🎙️
AI had a god candle this week upon news of OpenAI’s newest text-to-video model, Sora.
Worldcoin (WLD), where Sam Altman sits as co-founder, moved 170%+ this week upon the release of Sora
RNDR broke the previous range high of last mini-cycle and is now sitting close to $6
TAO continues creeping ever closer to $700
GameFi saw an incredible rally this week as Mechanism Capital’s founder Rewkang continues shilling Heroes Of Mavia.
Beam is up more than 10% on the day, and has solidified itself as a mainstay “gaming coin” of this cycle
With $PIXL coming soon on Binance launchpad, it’s worth keeping an eye on
Other Outperformers:
INJ got narrated on and subsequently saw 15% price increase
SOL is currently hitting highs last seen in January 2024. While SOL season may have died down a bit, certain shitcoins are outperforming like WIF, AI, and META
TIA and DYM are currently underperforming the market, and with attention away from TIA, it may be a good time to look into it
ETH Beta continues to be a trade people look at as everyone expects an ETH ETF to be approved sometime in May. Current outperformers are:
BLUR - has the narrative as the main NFT marketplace on ETH, as well as proxy to BLAST, another Ethereum L2
Layer 2s: OP / ARB and more recently MATIC with their token migration
LSTs: LDO / RPL
Others: ENS
New coins that are worth monitoring
ZETA as one of those “low mcap, high FDV” coins - this has been performing spectacularly
DYM as TIA beta
AI as a gamefi x AI intersection, but also because the ticker is AI
On-Chain ⛓️
AI:
OLAS saw a huge price reversion back to $6
Unlike the rest, the outlier ComAI saw an exploit in one of the whales wallets, which dumped it to as low as $1.8.
MAI saw a sudden 3x as news of their Hyperliquid vault came out that it would be launching sometime in March
New projects: Arbius, an AI project backed by a16z, followed by Marc Andreessen on Twitter
GameFi:
Other GameFi outperformers like GuildFi as beta to Beam continues to chug along nicely
PRIME finally broke ATHs, an achievement worth celebrating
Memes:
MOG revived after months of downtrend / accumulation, and swiftly broke ATHs. It promptly retested the ATHs, but managed to consolidate above before going higher. Many are speculating it to continue chugging along with a revival of the ETH Eco after ETH breaches $3k
Others:
MOBY, the ICO platform that recently launched, 2x’ed in a week. With many projects in the pipeline, it may signal a revival of the ICO era. Time will tell.
As usual, thanks for reading! I’m excited to see where we go in the next months. But remember, above all, keep yourselves safe and healthy! See you guys next week <3
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