0xKyle's Market Color #20
It's gonna be a big week (wick)
GM! Welcome to the first Market Color of 2024. I just hit 5,000 readers on 0xKyle’s Research - a big milestone for me :) I really appreciate every one of you who reads my newsletter. I promise to keep delivering valuable market commentary and insight, and wish all of you a very blessed 2024. Without further ado, let’s get into it!
Executive Summary 📝
In the last market update 4 days ago (High Conviction Bets), I talked about how I now believe the ETF to be sell-the-news. I backed up this with data - 50-100% APR on funding across the board, CME OI at ATHs, etc.
We nuked shortly after, and I continue to be in the boat of “sell the news” - that is the plan, at least. However, I also outlined the invalidation of said plan with a couple of different scenarios, with the most likely one being: Flipping bullish if days after sell-the-news show bullish PA.
I mean - this is very common sense. But if we for some reason get post-event bullishness (for example, if the launch of the ETF is just a few days after the approval), there is an utmost need to flip bullish.
Anyways, I don’t see a reason to position bullish or bearish here. In either case, all you have to do is be at your desk and take up a position when the deed is done. If it’s an outright ETF Denial - well, expect some carnage in the next few weeks.
Market Narratives 🎙️
Narratives are pretty stale right now as liquidity flows to safe havens and people wait for the event to play out. The strongest narratives I see are:
ETH ETF: ETH/BTC has bottomed for the 99th time in a row, as people narrate the “BTC to ETH flows” idea.
LSDs saw a pump in the previous week, as LDO broke its triangle wedge pattern
OP/MINA/ARB saw massive flows as well
Many alts have reverted back - with -20%/-30% across the board. If we get a bullish ETF scenario, this is probably a great time to BTFD
GMT outperformed yesterday upon launch of its newest game-update: Gas Heroes. I have not been keeping up with it, but here’s a great thread by Folius Ventures’ MapleLeafCap.
TAO is back at 200, if anyone is looking to pick some up
People bidding $AI because of good ticker + AI + GameFi tech
On-Chain ⛓️
On-Chain is even more dead as liquidity has been siphoned and people are just waiting in the sidelines. Some news we have:
$SAGA Community Genesis Airdrop
$1CAT announcing a “strategic partnership” with DWF
$CEL & $ETH - Celsius Network Unstaking ETH
$IOTX Is Preparing To Launch Their ZK L2 DePIN Solution
$KAS Announced The Launch of Testnet 11 on January 7th
$XAI airdrop for the node holders
Azuki announced $ANIME (not officially, but probably) → Other NFT collections might look to do the same
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