0xKyle's Market Color #19
Musical chairs... are ending soon?
GM. It’s been 2 weeks since the last market update, and the market has changed a lot since then! It’s now Christmas time, and I hope you guys are cozying up nicely, drinking a warm cup of hot chocolate as you read my newsletter~
Executive Summary 📝
Some updates from the previous Market Color: December HAS been a choppy month price-wise on BTC, but not for alts. This chop has been fantastic for the alt market - something I was wrong on since my definition of chop was one of those “low volume, flat sentiment” kinds.
This is evidence of the BEAR PTSD that was instilled in me throughout 2023 - something that is genuinely difficult to unlearn. Other bad habits include taking profits too soon, fading pumps expecting them to retrace, and so on.
I write these mistakes I’ve made in the hopes that it prompts some measure of self-reflection for the ones who find themselves facing similar issues. Updating the map you use to navigate the markets is never an easy process, but a necessary one.
That being said, I find myself being bearish (not because of PTSD) purely because of what I’ve seen in the past weeks. Just for starters, we’ve had:
BONK 10m uPNL trader refusing to close his position because “more up”
On-chainors rotating from Solana→ Avalanche → Injective→ SUI → Celestia all to mint shitty NFTs / buy the latest memecoin
RSI being heavily over-extended for the past few days on many alts
No new liquidity
Dog coin listings mark local tops
Look - I understand better than anyone that the crypto market can remain illogical longer than you can remain solvent. Nonetheless, the crypto market is infamous for being akin to a wide theatre with a small exit.
All you need is that one spark and everyone starts rushing out. The issue, of course, always lies in timing. Unfortunately, I’m not a prophet, and neither are your favourite CT influencers. The only advice I can give is to turn that leverage slider back to zero, for fear of getting blown up.
As the GCR old adage goes:
We are definitely not at the point where trend first reverses - that much I can tell. So hedge your positions, and tread carefully.
(EDIT: The above section was written before the nuke we just saw this Monday morning LMAO. Not sure where we go now, but I’m thinking range around 40s.)
Market Narratives 🎙️
Narrators were quick to narrate on the expiry of $WLD’s MM contract - here’s a tweet thread that explains it much better than I can
Bonk listing on Binance in a crazy week that saw it up +92.5%
ICP is up 111% (yes, that ICP) for no reason at all, apparently
Solana phones are selling for as high as $6,000 whilst having retailed for $600 - a nice 10x for anyone who got their hands on one. This premium is caused by speculation on potential airdrops for people who own a Solana phone.
GuildFi saw a nice pump as people speculated it on being Merit Circle (BEAM) beta
BRC-20s did excellent for a while, and you have tickers like ORDI / SATS all taking the limelight on perps. The hype around BRC-20s is, in my opinion, not something to fade - with new narratives like these, it’s most important to figure out what is the “kingmaker” play (i.e the “reigning token of the eco”)
Aside from that, the general list of coins narrators have been narrating on:
SUI
SEI as a parallelized EVM tecc (i.e basically good tecc)
The big three (TIA/BEAM/INJ)
SOL
RNDR
ASTR (Upbit Listing, KRW Degeneracy)
LINK (TA Brekaout)
NTRN (TIA Beta)
On-Chain ⛓️
BONK / TOSHI / COQ as the native memecoins on Solana / Base / Avalanche saw their respective pumps as BONK led the pack.
dogwifhat / other Solana BONK betas appeared throughout the week, garnering 5-10xes as people degen-ned into the coins.
Cosmos ecosystem saw a nice pump as liquidity rotated around SUI, SEI, OSMOSIS, TIA, INJ; Yesterday, we even had inscriptions on Celestia (that had to be delayed because it broke the website)
Airdrop farming continues on Solana and Cosmos, namely:
MarginFi / Tensor / Kamino / Drift for SOL (and many others, I’m sure)
Staking KUJI / TIA / INJ / ATOM for airdrops on Cosmos
BRC-20s are seeing the equivalent of DeFi-Summer right now, as almost every trader I know in BRCs are in huge profits. It’s widely speculated that the liquidity is coming from China / Asia, with videos of Chinese Grandmas apeing BRC-20s. Some stuff I’m interested in:
TRAC / MUBI
Bitcoin Frogs
Gamefi NFTs continues to hold strong, and it remains a thesis I feel is extremely underlooked because many of the real performing tokens aren’t even out yet. For example:
Pixelmon saw a 2x increase in price, and a few days ago the announcement of a token was official
Treeverse has gone up 8x since the bottom
Overworld has 2x’ed since the bottom
Mocaverse trades at 4e on hopes of a token
And many other projects as well
Grass continues to be farmed by farmooors as people expect a TGE soon. Sign up here
LBPs like ORDS / Restake / Scramble launched on FJORD Foundry this week
That about wraps it up. I’m kinda neutral right now at 40k, and think that as we approach Christmas, big money will be chilling; January will be the real month to watch as I expect incredible volatility in that month.
Like always, if you like my work, consider becoming a paid subscriber! I post weekly portfolio updates and in-depth gated research reports. As always, stay safe and see you next week!
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