0xKyle's Market Color #18
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GM. I hope everyone had a blessed Thanksgiving! I’ve always wanted to celebrate it - it seems like such a fun holiday~
Executive Summary 📝
What a week it’s been! Last Monday I talked about bidding on the flush, and it worked out perfectly - although perhaps not for the same reasons I was thinking of. With the Binance DOJ ruling behind us, many, many Tradfi people are thinking the same thing - “crypto is slowly becoming safer”.
Honestly, I can hardly believe my own eyes. It seems like the stars are aligning a little too perfectly going into 2024. We’re about to see a year of:
Bitcoin ETFs
Rate cuts
Presidential election (good for markets)
Lack of Binance collapse risk
And these are only the ones I can think of off the top of my head. In the back half of 2023, we’ve also had famous finance figures like Druckenmiller agreeing that he should “own some Bitcoin”.
The term “first slowly, then all at once” perfectly encapsulates this seemingly abrupt support for crypto. And while I see some takes on Twitter being bearish precisely because everyone’s bullish - it’s not wise to be contrarian at every point.
As Soros himself said:
It only pays to be contrarian at inflection points. That being said, I think December will shape up to be a pretty choppy month - as people head off to the holiday season, I expect volume to dwindle and general sentiment to be pretty flat.
Of course, the market isn’t the same as it was in early 2023 - now, we still have narratives popping off left and right even in flat markets, which are somewhat more sustainable and longer lasting than what we saw earlier this year.
Market Narratives
Overall, the market state is less PvP than last week, but still reminiscent of the 2023 bera (chop). I have not much edge in trading in such conditions - you kind of have to be permanently online for this, and I’m currently enjoying learning Turkish March on the piano (as someone who’s a Grade 4 piano player… it’s tough man)
GameFi is currently on fire. Market participants are rushing to pick up anything with a semblance of GameFi in them - AXS is up +15% on the week.
The less talked about one are GameFi NFTs - now those have produced some staggering returns, with many of them doing 10x’es and more. I firmly believe there’s a trade to be taken here - with the NFT market bottoming, I think that the next wave will be Gamefi in the form of NFTs.
Blur is up 60% this week - no surprise there, with the launcher of the Layer 2 - Blast. Blast has been getting blasted by FUD on the timeline though, with many claiming their 5/5 multisig has suspicious origins and is highly insecure. Paradigm even had to address this in a tweet thread this morning.
New tokens have been doing slightly well, although they’re topping way faster than what we saw just a month ago. Flip saw a quick 2x after its launch, with many influencers claiming it was the “next Thorchain”. I admit, I might look to buy more of this token once it bottoms.
FTT is up bigly… as a beta play to Binance’s DOJ news… this is too degen man, even for me. Currently up 15% on the week… Crypto tings.
LSDs saw some outperformance mid week but quicly retraced as Eth continues to chop around the 2000s range. It’s definitely frustrating to see.
SUI / SEI pumped as degens looked towards longing what had “not already pumped”.
Some other notable mentions:
LINK staking will be available on the 28th of November
dYdX unlock on Nov. 28 - many people are postulating it’s a “bullish unlock”, because the tokens will be on the dYdX chain which isn’t supported by CExs.
FXS will be having a halving on Dec 20, and will launch its Fraxchain somewhere in January
Aptos is releasing 24.84 million tokens worth $180 million on December 12
ApeCoin will unlock 15.16 million tokens, valued at $25 million, on December 16.
$ILV will be launching its Beta 3 PVP on November 28
EOS will be unveiling a new consensus mechanism on November 28 as well
$1INCH 98m tokens unlock (~6.5% of total supply) on December 1st ; The last 4 times price went down but unlock was 16% of total supply
On-Chain
MMX has a token unlock today of 20% - will be heavily looked into as people hope to BTD
SOL shitcoins are still doing well, with names like GUAC popping up all over my timeline
Vertex seems to be the new perps protocol as people point out that it has surpassed dYdX in trading volume, yet has a smaller market cap than it
Old gaming tokens are catching a bid, with names like SIPHER, SUPER, ILV, etc. SUPER just got a Binance listing this morning, which probably helped greatly in accelerating the pump
ETH shitcoins are also doing well, with GROK up 202% this week
Overall, very choppy conditions both on-chain and on perps. Buy low, sell high and take profits in a manner of hours or days. I continue remaining long in my spot bags, and chilling.
I will be discussing new plays in this Wednesday’s substack that I’m really excited about. If you want to know what it is, you can get a free premium trial for my substack without paying - and if you like what you read, you can always consider becoming a premium sub!
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Ever been interested in Pulsechain? Ethereum copy, with better specs.